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Macro Research Platform

Finding the Macro Trades Most Miss

Second Point identifies non-consensus investment dislocations hidden inside macro events aimed at tracing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order effects before they become market consensus.

Read latest research → See our coverage map

Munis · Rates · FX · Credit · Equities · Commodities

Global Coverage

Covering Markets across 6 Continents

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Second Point — Global Coverage Map
United States Brazil United Kingdom Spain Germany China Japan Middle East
1st order Priced in hours

The obvious reaction — rate hike, banks rally. Everyone sees it. No edge here; we don't trade it.

2nd order 30–90 days out

The transmission path — supply chains, credit issuers, forced flows. Consensus misses this window. This is where Second Point operates.

3rd order Months out

The structural regime shift — how a whole category of risk gets repriced. Longest duration, highest conviction.

The edge lives in the derivative effects, not the headline event. A thesis only advances through the pipeline if the dislocation is 2nd or 3rd order, it clears the crowding gate, the worst-case P&L is net positive, and borrow/repo is available.

From the Newsletter

Latest from Second Point

Rates / Munis May 19, 2026 ACTIVE

Why Mountain Towns Don't All Ski the Same Credit Curve

A record-low snow season hit every Colorado resort town — but rating agencies haven't started pricing the difference between towns with diversified CapEx and towns one bad winter from a downgrade.

9 min read · Tracker checked May 19, 2026
Details → Follow
Rates / Macro Feb 8, 2026 ON TRACK

The Swap Spread Trade Everyone Explains Wrong

Most desks frame this as a QT story. The actual driver is a Treasury issuance mix shift that won't show up in the data for another two auction cycles — which is exactly the point.

11 min read · Tracker checked Feb 8, 2026
Details → Follow
Equities / Commodities Jan 28, 2026 Closed WIN +53.5%

The Regime Change Trade Isn't the One in the Headlines

Everyone's watching Orinoco Belt output. The real repricing is happening one step removed — in the Gulf Coast refiners built to process exactly the heavy crude this unlocks.

13 min read · Closed Jul 12, 2026
Details → Follow
Track Record

Show your work,
track every call

Every thesis is published with a stated time horizon, entry rationale, and explicit exit criteria. These are directionally sound structured falsifiable investment memos with transparent outcomes, including the losses.

Results reflect actual positions entered and exited by the author. The author holds the positions shown as active and may adjust or exit them at any time without notice — see the full Disclaimer & Disclosures.

Rates / Munis ACTIVE

Colorado Ski-Town Muni Credit Pair

Long Vail/Aspen, short Eagle/Summit — a record-low snow season is splitting the credit curve between resort towns with diversified CapEx and towns one bad winter from a downgrade.

Entry May 19, 2026 · Tracker checked May 19, 2026
Rates ON TRACK

10Y USD Swap Spread Widener

A Treasury issuance mix shift, not the consensus QT story, is the real driver — it won't show up in the data for another two auction cycles.

Entry Feb 8, 2026 · -43 bps → Target -25 bps · 6-8 mo
Equities / Utilities ACTIVE

PJM Mandated Transmission Buildout — Long AEP

PJM has to close its reliability shortfall by law, whatever the capped capacity price does — which forces price-insensitive transmission spending. AEP, the largest US transmission owner, collects that rate-base growth while consensus crowds into the capped generation trade.

Entry Jul 15, 2026 · $132.50 → Target $160.00 · Stop $118.00 · 9-12 mo
Equities / Credit ACTIVE

Hyperscaler Hidden-Debt Bifurcation — Long DLR / Short Neocloud

The obsolescence risk hyperscalers pushed off balance sheet didn't vanish — it moved into un-guaranteed neocloud credit while the backstopped tier stayed protected. Long contracted data-center cash flow, short the naked GPU-collateral tier.

Entry Jul 23, 2026 · Long DLR / short neocloud basket, dollar-neutral · Target pair +15% · 3-6 mo
Closed positions
Equities / Commodities Closed WIN

Venezuela Post-Maduro — Long Refiners

The repricing isn't in Orinoco Belt output headlines — it's one step removed, in the Gulf Coast refiners built to process exactly the heavy crude this unlocks.

Entry Jan 28, 2026 · VLO $184 → ~$282.50 · Target $257 exceeded
+53.5% (VLO, final)
› Lessons learned

What worked: The core mechanism — Venezuela repricing showing up one step removed in Gulf Coast refiners rather than headline Orinoco Belt production — played out. VLO cleared its $257 target and kept running to roughly +53.5%.

What didn't: The target was too conservative — VLO traded well above target for weeks before the position was closed, with no trailing-stop mechanism to capture the extra move.

Wrong or early: Right and undersized — the mechanism and direction were correct; the target was the miscalibrated part.

Would trade again: Yes — next time with a trailing stop once target is hit, rather than a static hold.

Commodities Closed WIN

Copper Futures — Structural Supply Squeeze

Mine disruption and grid-electrification demand pointed to a structural supply deficit ahead of consensus.

Entry Dec 18, 2025 · $5.41/lb → $6.42 · Target $6.13 hit
+18.7%
› Lessons learned

What worked: The structural supply-deficit mechanism played out on the modeled timeline; price cleared the $6.13 target inside the stated horizon.

What didn't: Underestimated how fast CTA/momentum flow would front-load the move, compressing the entry window faster than modeled.

Wrong or early: Early-to-right — mechanism was correct, timing was roughly on schedule.

Would trade again: Yes, with tighter entry discipline — scale in over two tranches instead of one.

Equities / Commodities Closed WIN

Royal Gold (RGLD) — Equity BUY

Entry at $146.65, closed at $300.00 — the royalty model's insulation from mine-cost inflation was the differentiator through the gold re-rating, full entry rationale and exit criteria as published.

Entry Feb 14, 2025 · $146.65 → Closed $300.00
+104.6%
› Lessons learned

What worked: Royalty-model insulation from mine-cost inflation was the correct differentiator during the gold re-rating.

What didn't: Sizing was conservative relative to the eventual multiple expansion — right on mechanism, underweighted the tail.

Wrong or early: Neither — thesis and timing both held.

Would trade again: Yes, modified — with a partial call-option overlay for convexity.

✓ P&L attribution published on every closed thesis, net of carry
✓ Post-mortems on incorrect calls — what broke in the thesis
✓ No survivorship bias — all theses in the archive, wins and losses
3 for 3 on resolved calls · small sample, judged trade-by-trade · 2 active
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LJ
Landon Johnson
Indiana University · Finance

Finance and Business Analytics Student at Indiana University. Second Point is the macro research framework I use to find niche investment dislocations.Every thesis is published, tracked, and closed with a lessons-learned note.

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Resolved calls · full attribution
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Why 2nd and 3rd order
effects matter

The 1st order effect of any macro event gets priced within hours. Rate hike? Banks go up, growth goes down. Geopolitical shock? Oil spikes, risk-off. Everyone sees these and there is no edge in the obvious reaction.

The 2nd order effect takes 30–90 days to play out and requires tracing the actual transmission path: which supply chains get disrupted, which credit issuers face margin calls, which behavioral flows get forced. Consensus misses this window almost every time.

The 3rd order is the structural regime shift, if something happens months out, this is the highest conviction moves that Second Point looks for.

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